Description

Short technical description: The model is a demand model for forecasting freight transport flows The model is based on a base year with known freight transport flows and on a known description on the development of the economy up to the forecast year. For the description of the goods flows of the base year, data are needed regarding the transport pattern (to/from relationships), disaggregated into mode and type of product. Economic growth is measured in terms of production, consumption, final use, import and export. All variables are disaggregated into type of industry. The forecasting model also needs other kind of economic statistics. Unique features: The model may be said to consist of three fundamental components: · transport pattern in the initial situation · development of the economy up to the forecast year · development of the values of goods Quantitative data on capacity or capability: Transport statistics are obtained from Statistics Sweden (SCB) and are of relatively good quality. The values of some of the economic variables are also obtained from SCB. Latest research: The model is a part of the Swedish national model system for goods transport – SAMGODS, used by the Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis Relevant standards: Financing of the facility: through projects

Keywords

Demand model, forecasting, freight, transport, flows...

Comment

Availability for outside use:yes, but data is needed (can be obtained from the Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis).